While Turkey is not currently gripped in the mortal throes of a wasting disease, it is in danger of being eclipsed: of being forgotten, diminished, and generally overlooked at the very moment when its citizens wish to claim their nation’s rightful heritage. Yet here the Turks are divided into two camps: the pro-Western elite, who see Turkey’s future as an EU member state well-integrated with Europe, and the pro-religious populace, who detest Ataturk’s secular designation, and wish for a Turkish Islamic government – like in Iran, the Arab states, and Afghanistan. Controlling the latter (as well as Turkey’s many mostly imagined enemies) has required a constant and costly show of force, in the form of a highly visible military presence.

Turkey’s military strength works against it on several levels. Paradoxically, even though the army is there to protect and nurture a pro-democratic, pro-European climate, the resulting image of Turkey as a police state run by humorless generals has caused many Westerners to criticize the apparent suppression of dissent and free speech. Besides the political hindrance presented by the military, a second and more basic factor is the inordinate expense of maintaining and outfitting such a force. The vast majority of the Turkish budget goes to defense – thereby reducing the funding for education and social programs that would improve the lot of average Turks, and increase the skills and aptitude of the Turkish labor force. Yet with perceived enemies on every border – the Russians, Iraqis, Syrians and Greeks, not to mention the internal religious separatists and restless Kurdish minority – it’s unlikely that Turkey will change its policy anytime soon. As we will see, the apparent strength of the Turkish militarily actually conceals the country’s fundamental weaknesses, which continue to spread. Over the next decade, Turkey’s eclipse seems almost guaranteed.

FOR THE TURKS, TUESDAY USED TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK
September 11th was really bad timing for Turkey, considering how it spoiled the very day (Tuesday) on which the Byzantine capital of Constantinople fell to the Ottoman sultan Mehmet II in 1453. Ever since, Tuesday has meant good luck to Turks and bad luck for the Greeks. Yet the events of the more recent "Black Tuesday" seem to have ruined this association for Ankara. While it will undoubtedly get a reassuring pat on the back from America for the continuing US air force presence in Incirlik, Turkey is uneasy at the prospect of mass anti-Western protests. Should America start bombing Islamic countries, many fear that the government might suffer from guilt by association – and become an object of attack from within. The prospect of Turkey’s huge arsenal falling into the wrong hands, as unlikely as it might be, is an unsettling one. More so than any other Islamic country, a radicalized Turkey would pose an unpredictable and immediate danger to Europe. Once again, the dependence on a strong military can become a potential liability.

EVEN THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS ARE SHOUTING: "TURKEY, OUT!"
Most embarrassing for Turkey is the current crisis of morale in Northern Cyprus. The minority population of the traditionally Greek island, which the Turkish army is allegedly there to "protect," is chafing under a demoralizing existence of repression and poverty, brought about by the disastrous thirty-year misrule of Rauf Denktash, a bilious curmudgeon comparable to the equally rancorous and ideologically obsolete Ian Paisley in Northern Ireland.

Allegiance to Ankara has largely been a given for the Turkish population of Cyprus since the invasion of 1974. Through promises of a better life and macho displays of military might, Ankara maintained the charade that it was really concerned about the lives of its citizens – while really just trying to keep up a military presence on the last Greek island left exposed. For strategic reasons, and to guarantee a diplomatic card, Turkey pursued the military occupation of a sovereign country, and set up a "republic" of Northern Cyprus that has gone unrecognized by every country but Ankara. To strengthen their claims to the island, hundreds of thousands of Anatolian Turks were forcibly relocated to Cyprus, many leaving a life of relative prosperity for one of barren poverty, so that Ankara could play its political games. Now the usually docile Turkish Cypriots are angry; they gaze enviously across the barbed wire at affluent Greek Cyprus, its currency stronger than the British pound, its culture modern, European and forward-looking. Now, with Cyprus being sped along to EU membership by 2004 – whether or not a settlement is reached with Turkey – the Northern Cypriots are beginning to feel betrayed and unjustly hindered by their own leaders. A report in the Guardian of 25 September captures the mood:

"Please tell the world that the TRNC is an open prison," Ahmet Barcin, president of the zone's secondary-school teachers' union, said. "It's one big, militarised zone and all the gates are locked. Our only key to freedom is a quick peace settlement [with the Greek south of the island], entry to the EU and reintegration with the rest of the world."

DENKTASH: WILL "OUT OF TOUCH" MEAN "OUT OF OFFICE?"
Although applications for passports have almost doubled, and desperate Turkish Cypriots have organized a diverse collection of opposition parties into a front called "the Group of 41," their ill-tempered throwback of a leader continually denies the existence of any problem – or even of any unique local culture:

"Those who are against Turkey are wrong. There is no Cypriot culture, apart from our national custom of drinking brandy. There are Turks of Cyprus and Greeks of Cyprus, that's all," he snapped.

But last year tear gas was used in northern Nicosia to break up supporters of the Group of 41 demonstrating under the slogan "This is our country."

Not long after that the opposition newspaper Avrupa (Europe) was bombed, and there was a severe crackdown on all informal contacts with Greek Cypriots. "What's the point of such contacts?" Mr Denktash said. "I've heard the only thing people seem to do at these meetings is have sex."

Ouch! In striking quite literally below the belt, Denktash sets himself up for derision and betrays his failure to connect with the modern generation of Turkish-Cypriots. The question is not whether he will be replaced, but when. The warm Mediterranean sun, which should really be shining down equally on Cyrprus as a whole, casts its benevolent rays solely on the Greek section of the island. With EU accession looming, and full integration into Europe becoming more and more likely, the Turkish Cypriots are determined to avoid being frozen out. Unlike their compatriots on the Anatolian mainland, the Turkish Cypriots have a chance – and damned if they’re going to let one cranky old man stand in their way.

WHAT A FREE CYPRUS WOULD MEAN FOR ANKARA
The Cyprus stalemate is so longstanding now that any concession on the Turkish side would inevitably be seen as a sign of weakness and failure. For a country unified solely by the threat and the image of a strong army, weakness and failure do not go over well. Therefore, a unified Cypriot state, ineluctably to be dominated by its more affluent, educated and Europeanized Greek majority, would be considered a step backwards, even from the backwardness of life that Turkish Cypriots currently enjoy. The loss of control of the northern section of the island would come as a tremendous military setback and admission of weakness, one which might have ramifications for the internal stability of the Turkish government. Indeed, could there be any scenario more distressing to the Turks than a free and unified Cyprus?

THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE
Yes, in fact, we can go one better, with the ultimate scenario that would give every Turkish leader an instant stroke – that is, the thought of Cyprus finally joining the Greek state. While this is admittedly a long shot of an option, and one categorically excluded by the Turks, it can be argued that a Greek-controlled Cyprus would actually be good for Ankara in several ways.

First of all, such a capitulation on Turkey’s part would of necessity engender a similarly major concession on the part of the Greeks. In terms of what Turkey wants, a guarantee of EU membership would be the absolute minimum required, and they would no doubt win additionally in trade concessions and other economic relief. The second reason why Turkey would benefit is that, as the past decade in the Balkans has shown, being an ethnic minority in someone else’s country is much better than having an ethnic minority within one’s own country. By championing the rights of the Turkish minority in Cyprus, Ankara would acquire greater leverage (indeed, it gain practically a veto power on all Greek policy decisions) while at the same time winning the affection of Turkish-Cypriots – for, with the heavy-handed, Ankara-imposed government dismantled, and military intervention halted, the Turkish Cypriots would have no reason to curse their own. Yet it’s unlikely we’ll see a really Greek Cyprus anytime soon – militarily speaking, Turkish testosterone shows no signs of abating.

THE OIL PIPELINE – TURKEY GETS SQUEEZED OUT
Turkey’s bad economic news is also not going away. Despite all the happy rhetoric from the Clinton administration, and all the hopeful gestures on the part of potential investors, it seems likely that the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, a potential cash cow for Turkey, will never be built. This because the route is more costly than similar routes through Russia and Iran, and also because of Turkey’s sinking economy. Turkey’s unending economic woes have already caused three of the major partner companies to pull out of the deal, and with Clinton out of office, the need to bypass Russia and Iran is moot. In fact, with the way things are going now, our new and cooperative friend Russia might stand to gain on more than the Chechnya issue. As for Iran, it stands to be rewarded for any help against bin Laden, and **** Cheney has long been (in matters of oil, at least) firmly in the Iranian camp.

THE FALLOUT, ON TWO FRONTS
While analysts have shivered at the thought of Turkey’s "wrath" at being locked out of the pipeline, there would seem to be little to fear. At worst, the US could lose access to its strategic bases, but Turkey is not about to start a war with anyone, because it is economically in ruins. Indeed, these woes are making Turkey into a very expensive mistress for the US, which is now being asked to write off Turkey's massive military debt.

The traditionally hostile Turko-Russian relationship looks set to get worse, and the outlines of a realpolitik cold war showdown are already emerging in the Caucasus. In the Adjara region of southern Georgia, the Turkish minority is clamoring for independence. A little further to the east, Georgia’s Armenians are protesting the withdrawal of Russian troops, who they believe are essential to protect them against the Turks. Whether or not there fears are justified nowadays, many of the Armenian Georgians are old enough to remember when they were.

THAT DAMN ARMENIA THING JUST WON’T GO AWAY!
Modern Turkey continues to be roasted by Europe for its "human rights" deficiencies, both old and new. In this regard, John Paul II, feeble as he is, has still got that Catholic instinct for twisting the knife. The Pope condemned Turkey for yeghern (Armenian for "genocide") against its Armenian minority, a designation also made by European governments but for which Clinton lacked the guts. It is probable however, that 1.5 million Armenians were rounded up and killed by the Turks between 1915-1923, and any student of Anatolian history knows that the region of "Armenia" (at various times, a powerful medieval kingdom) was much larger than the pitifully small country which Turkey bullies even today.

FOR EUROPE, THE CYNICAL VIEW MAY PROVE HARD TO SWALLOW
The cynical view is that since Greek dropped its objections to Turkish EU accession in 1998, the rest of Europe has been scrambling to find a way to keep the Turks out of Europe. For prosperous and peaceful countries like Sweden and Ireland know well that, the second Turkey joins the EU, their borders will be flooded by millions of poor and desperate Turks. Yet they don’t want to say it. Since European countries have always fancied themselves as being so advanced and humanitarian, it was easy to make Turkey all kinds of promises before – the "oh, we’d love to have you, if Greece would just drop their objection" duplicity.

Yet the Greeks know well that if Turkey does join the EU, those ravenous masses won’t stop at Athens – no, it’ll be all the way to Brussels, Stockholm, or London, baby! And then those caring Northern Europeans will have to put their money where their mouth is. To avoid doing this, it is easier to just make Turkey run the gauntlet of "human rights" – a Sisyphisean labor involving prisoners’ rights, or Kurdish rights, or recognizing the Armenian genocide, or abolishing the death penalty. And so the Turks (the pro-Western elite, anyway) have been rushing around frantically to do their masters’ bidding.

Yet they shouldn’t hold their breath. Europe has no intention of ever letting Turkey in, for obvious economic reasons, and unstated cultural ones. Indeed, while Berlusconi’s controversial words may have been foolhardy, they were also courageous, and they did represent the reality – that Europeans do by and large view Islamic culture as backwards and inferior, though they are too afraid to say so, caught as they are in the web of political correctness that they themselves fabricated in order to ensnare others. It is just Turkey’s bad luck to have to be the scapegoat; though Europe will assuredly always speak to it in the politest of tones, it will at the same time keep whispering derisively behind its back. Yet you can bet if the Turks ever make it through, and minarets start going up in Dublin, or the amplified Arabic wailing rings out over Oslo, the whisper will become a roar, and the "cultural war" which bin Laden is presently trying to bring about will happen for real.

BUT ARE THEY READY FOR THE ULTIMATE APOCALYPSE?
As if all this were not enough, there is one final disaster waiting to happen in Turkey, which would immediately plunge the country – and even the whole region – into chaos.

Ever since the major earthquake in Izmit, in August 1999, in which over 20,000 Turks were killed (mostly due to illegally built, poor quality housing), seismologists have been predicting an even worse catastrophe – a massive earthquake in Istanbul. Following the historical progression of seismic activity during the 20th century, it is clear that the Turkish fault line has been steadily activated in a westward direction, with periodic quakes roughly following the contours of the Black Sea coast. Over the past hundred years, subterranean pressure has been slowly building, so that the final rupture, the epicenter of which is anticipated to be the Sea of Marmara, just offshore from Istanbul, is likely to be the most devastating of all. Simply put, a massive earthquake in Istanbul would be catastrophic – and the Turks are completely unprepared for it.

That an earthquake here would be so destructive owes to Istanbul’s location, construction and also its historic value. Situated on a tiny peninsula jutting into the Bosphorous, this sprawling city of 17 million is a decrepit maze of ancient, tiny streets and ramshackle buildings, flimsy constructions that are hardly strong enough to withstand a major quake. The prospect of oil, gas and chemicals flooding the Sea of Marmara, and the islands of Greece further on, is an almost unimaginable environmental nightmare. Moreover, Istanbul’s wealth of historical ruins from Byzantine and Ottoman times make it Turkey’s top tourist draw. On any given day, an estimated 2 million tourists throng its streets and shore up the Turkish economy. An earthquake in Istanbul, Turkey’s most vibrant and important city, would signal the death of the Turkish economy, livelihood and culture. It would probably signal the start of mass starvation and death. If the earthquake of 1999 is anything to go by, unscrupulous thieves would soon start cutting body organs from the still-warm bodies of the dead, to sell on the black market. In such a scenario the government would probably be toppled, and anarchy would reign. Experts are not optimistic that the inevitable can be avoided.